DISHONOUR AMONG THEIVES
OH Kenya; what have you done? It was going so well until last week; you were the envy of Sub-Saharan Africa, a shining example for all other nations in the region to follow. Now look at you? A falling giant; a sad case of greed and power mixing with tribal animosity to stoke the flames of destruction. We all act shocked that these scenes have happened; yet they were predictable; perhaps not on this scale but in everyway you looked at it somebody would have been a sore loser. Comparisons with Rwanda in 94 were drawn; perhaps hysterically but the seeds of genocide are capable of germinating in this fertile ground.
The unrest has exposed underlying tensions that go back centuries and despite having a very educated populous; old tribal rivalries have never been tamed. It has pitted Kikuyu against Luo, Kikuyu against Kalenjin, Muslim against Christian and has often just been mindless untargeted violence. It shows that the pace of African development; though strong has been too slow to help the poorest sections of society. It is a common occurrence in Africa as the ANC election showed; you can have the best economic indicators such as strong growth, low inflation, low debt and higher incomes but if people are left behind then they can pull the rug from under your feet.
The Romans believed in the saying “There are three types of lies; lies, damn lies and statistics”. This applied in Kenya prior to the elections; lies, damn lies and statistics were all in evidence. Lies; such as Kenya was united and strongly bonded, damn lies such as all Kenyans were equal, and statistics saying that Kenya had massive growth. The vast scale of slums such as Kibera and Mathare made all the stats redundant; a statistic is a lie in that respect, just because the nation had 6% growth didn’t mean a slum-dwellers life would be improved by 6%. Where did it all go wrong?
Historically the seeds were sown in the colonial era; the British found a series of Kingdoms and chiefdoms squabbling and fighting for meagre resources. They used the usual tactic of divide and rule to separate and undermine efforts for independence. There never was any time when Africans were united, the colonialists never introduced tribalism, they merely harnessed it to their own needs. Stereotypes were formed as a shorthand way of controlling the masses; Kikuyus are hard-working but greedy, Luos are lazy, Luhyas are gullible. These prejudices still inform people today; there is always a grain of truth in stereotypes but not enough to justify prejudice.
I remember being with a friend recently in Nairobi and we wanted to buy a soda, we walked into a shop and walked out immediately, in the end we walked for a while looking for a shop that was owned by a Kikuyu. The thought of enriching a man from another tribe was so abhorrent to him and he went to great lengths to avoid this. Tribes are an anachronism in modern Africa that cannot go away, partly because they are still the primary source of identity as well as being politically expedient as power blocs. The colonial structure of ruling by numbers and tribal quotas was maintained in every aspect; in Kenya there was an attempt to unify the country but in smaller tribal blocs. Politics is by nature tribal, in the West these tribes have been lost but replaced with fluid tribes that are self-defining; Liberals, Conservatives, Gay and Lesbians, Working Classes, Middle-classes, Youth. All these segments are fought over as blocs while being pandered to and denounced at the same time.
The tribal issue didn’t arise in 2002 because both the candidates were Kikuyu; both Uhuru Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki were from the same tribe. The great ogre Moi was the main object of hatred and change after 40 years of KANU was the main priority. Within months the unruly alliance of Raila and Kibaki was dead in the water; Kibaki was isolated and began to surround himself with his own kind. Maybe this was because he needed yes-men or maybe to enrich his own kind. The centre of the country has always had the best economic prospects, due to its fertile land and hard-working people but was seen as the product of cronyism and the Mount Kenya mafia was born. A leader is defined by his followers and Kibakis followers were disgraceful. A series of scandals and cover-ups ate away at his popularity and he looked like a one-termer.
Enter the populist; Raila Odinga, a man who can whip up a crowd like a hypnotist and have them eating out of his hand in seconds. He was massively ahead in the polls but managed to squander all the goodwill he had by making secret deals and making promises he couldn’t keep. Because he lost his lead in the polls which went from 20 points to neck and neck; he cannot claim with certainty that it was rigged against him. Besides the rigging was on all sides, Nanyuki reported fraud, Kisumu reported fraud, no side is clean. The fact that Kibaki used state resources to rig was appalling; even more appalling was the dishonour among thieves who are African leaders.
They were all conspicuous by their silence, when they did speak it was to congratulate Kibaki on his rigging skills as Museveni did. The number one rule of African politics is “never speak ill of a fellow leader” hence Mugabe has been allowed to destroy his nation while they applauded. It makes you wonder what an African leader would have to do to be denounced by his fellow leaders. Bokassa practiced cannibalism yet was held in high esteem by fellow leaders, Idi Amin committed mass-rape and torture but Nyerere was viewed with suspicion for removing him. When President Kuffour of Ghana tried to come to negotiate he was treated with disdain and no other leaders backed him. During the Rwandan genocide no African leader openly condemned it; it was seen as an internal matter and even the right of the then Rwandan government to kill innocents. Yet we blame Clinton for not intervening when our own brothers were silent and even complicit. All it takes for evil to prosper is for good people to do nothing.
The real issue is poverty; Kenya is wealthy but most of its people are poor, 50% of Kenyans live on less than $1 a day, 60% of Nairobi residents live in slums, inflation is 12%, food prices are constantly rising, land is scarce and mostly arid. There is a Rwandese saying “abasangira ubusa b’itana ibisambo” when there is not enough food to share, then you fight and call each other greedy. That is the situation in Kenya, the Luo call Kikuyu greedy and vice versa. The creation of a strong middle-class is no substitute for helping the poor. In South Africa, Thabo Mbeki has presided over strong growth and the creation of a Black middle class but the masses were left behind so his presidency will have a legacy of failure.
This is a crucial moment for African democracy, if this rigging is let to stand then it is a rubber-stamp to every leader to rig at will. In Nigeria last year there was massive rigging but the Western observers accepted the results saying thought it was rigged it was generally what the people wanted. Kibaki has calculated that there will be an initial storm to ride out before the world averts its gaze to another pressing matter, then he will be free to rule unmolested. However he faces the problem of trying to rule with some 30 or so MP’s and an opposition that will try to impeach him at the first chance they get. You get the feeling his backers did not think this plot through; if they had the chance again they would have rigged some more parliamentary seats. In “A man for all seasons” by Thomas Moore; Henry VIII says “They follow me because I am their Lion while they are my jackals.” The meaning there is all Kibakis cronies would be hung out to dry and starve if he were removed; they would lose all privileges and face court proceedings if he left. That is the reason why counting was slow, then stopped altogether, then Kibaki suddenly declared the winner.
The cancer of corruption has spread so deep in Kenya that all the institutions that could solve this impasse are tainted. Samuel Kivuitu is either the giddy goat or villain of this story; he allowed the electoral commission to be bullied or doctor the result outright. The Attorney-General Amos Wako is as trustworthy as any biased crony chosen on tribal grounds. The Police and Army have always existed to maintain the status quo. The members of parliament are up for sale at an even higher price now; chances are that they will take the money and run with Kibaki to break the deadlock. Church and community leaders can scream all they want to no avail as they were part of the problem during the campaign. And in the middle of this is the Kenyan people; they aren’t as tribalist as the violence suggests. In urban areas inter-marriage is common; intermarriage is the main reason Kikuyu are as numerous as now, they are exogamic and absorb other tribes. It is in poorer outlying areas where the violence has erupted; where illiterate poor tribesmen have been manipulated into killing their neighbours.
In all it will take a long time to heal these wounds; in the long run Kenya will recover but it will always have the potential of more violence. The next government should concentrate on healing the country and helping the poor; otherwise they will be militias waiting for a chance to commit genocide. Poverty and climate change are pushing demographic issues to the fore in Africa. In Darfur, Ivory Coast, Ogaden, Somalia, Niger, Mali, Northern Uganda, and any place that you see conflict in Africa there is a problem of scarce resources for farming, grazing, minerals or whatever the sort. Now Kenya is the loser whoever the winner is; be it Raila or Mwai, even a score draw that is a unity government is a loss. We need to see what the least worst outcome is and choose that because the rock and the hard place will start to squeeze Kenya. In the long run a compromise will come but time is precious and people are dying.
OH Kenya; what have you done? It was going so well until last week; you were the envy of Sub-Saharan Africa, a shining example for all other nations in the region to follow. Now look at you? A falling giant; a sad case of greed and power mixing with tribal animosity to stoke the flames of destruction. We all act shocked that these scenes have happened; yet they were predictable; perhaps not on this scale but in everyway you looked at it somebody would have been a sore loser. Comparisons with Rwanda in 94 were drawn; perhaps hysterically but the seeds of genocide are capable of germinating in this fertile ground.
The unrest has exposed underlying tensions that go back centuries and despite having a very educated populous; old tribal rivalries have never been tamed. It has pitted Kikuyu against Luo, Kikuyu against Kalenjin, Muslim against Christian and has often just been mindless untargeted violence. It shows that the pace of African development; though strong has been too slow to help the poorest sections of society. It is a common occurrence in Africa as the ANC election showed; you can have the best economic indicators such as strong growth, low inflation, low debt and higher incomes but if people are left behind then they can pull the rug from under your feet.
The Romans believed in the saying “There are three types of lies; lies, damn lies and statistics”. This applied in Kenya prior to the elections; lies, damn lies and statistics were all in evidence. Lies; such as Kenya was united and strongly bonded, damn lies such as all Kenyans were equal, and statistics saying that Kenya had massive growth. The vast scale of slums such as Kibera and Mathare made all the stats redundant; a statistic is a lie in that respect, just because the nation had 6% growth didn’t mean a slum-dwellers life would be improved by 6%. Where did it all go wrong?
Historically the seeds were sown in the colonial era; the British found a series of Kingdoms and chiefdoms squabbling and fighting for meagre resources. They used the usual tactic of divide and rule to separate and undermine efforts for independence. There never was any time when Africans were united, the colonialists never introduced tribalism, they merely harnessed it to their own needs. Stereotypes were formed as a shorthand way of controlling the masses; Kikuyus are hard-working but greedy, Luos are lazy, Luhyas are gullible. These prejudices still inform people today; there is always a grain of truth in stereotypes but not enough to justify prejudice.
I remember being with a friend recently in Nairobi and we wanted to buy a soda, we walked into a shop and walked out immediately, in the end we walked for a while looking for a shop that was owned by a Kikuyu. The thought of enriching a man from another tribe was so abhorrent to him and he went to great lengths to avoid this. Tribes are an anachronism in modern Africa that cannot go away, partly because they are still the primary source of identity as well as being politically expedient as power blocs. The colonial structure of ruling by numbers and tribal quotas was maintained in every aspect; in Kenya there was an attempt to unify the country but in smaller tribal blocs. Politics is by nature tribal, in the West these tribes have been lost but replaced with fluid tribes that are self-defining; Liberals, Conservatives, Gay and Lesbians, Working Classes, Middle-classes, Youth. All these segments are fought over as blocs while being pandered to and denounced at the same time.
The tribal issue didn’t arise in 2002 because both the candidates were Kikuyu; both Uhuru Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki were from the same tribe. The great ogre Moi was the main object of hatred and change after 40 years of KANU was the main priority. Within months the unruly alliance of Raila and Kibaki was dead in the water; Kibaki was isolated and began to surround himself with his own kind. Maybe this was because he needed yes-men or maybe to enrich his own kind. The centre of the country has always had the best economic prospects, due to its fertile land and hard-working people but was seen as the product of cronyism and the Mount Kenya mafia was born. A leader is defined by his followers and Kibakis followers were disgraceful. A series of scandals and cover-ups ate away at his popularity and he looked like a one-termer.
Enter the populist; Raila Odinga, a man who can whip up a crowd like a hypnotist and have them eating out of his hand in seconds. He was massively ahead in the polls but managed to squander all the goodwill he had by making secret deals and making promises he couldn’t keep. Because he lost his lead in the polls which went from 20 points to neck and neck; he cannot claim with certainty that it was rigged against him. Besides the rigging was on all sides, Nanyuki reported fraud, Kisumu reported fraud, no side is clean. The fact that Kibaki used state resources to rig was appalling; even more appalling was the dishonour among thieves who are African leaders.
They were all conspicuous by their silence, when they did speak it was to congratulate Kibaki on his rigging skills as Museveni did. The number one rule of African politics is “never speak ill of a fellow leader” hence Mugabe has been allowed to destroy his nation while they applauded. It makes you wonder what an African leader would have to do to be denounced by his fellow leaders. Bokassa practiced cannibalism yet was held in high esteem by fellow leaders, Idi Amin committed mass-rape and torture but Nyerere was viewed with suspicion for removing him. When President Kuffour of Ghana tried to come to negotiate he was treated with disdain and no other leaders backed him. During the Rwandan genocide no African leader openly condemned it; it was seen as an internal matter and even the right of the then Rwandan government to kill innocents. Yet we blame Clinton for not intervening when our own brothers were silent and even complicit. All it takes for evil to prosper is for good people to do nothing.
The real issue is poverty; Kenya is wealthy but most of its people are poor, 50% of Kenyans live on less than $1 a day, 60% of Nairobi residents live in slums, inflation is 12%, food prices are constantly rising, land is scarce and mostly arid. There is a Rwandese saying “abasangira ubusa b’itana ibisambo” when there is not enough food to share, then you fight and call each other greedy. That is the situation in Kenya, the Luo call Kikuyu greedy and vice versa. The creation of a strong middle-class is no substitute for helping the poor. In South Africa, Thabo Mbeki has presided over strong growth and the creation of a Black middle class but the masses were left behind so his presidency will have a legacy of failure.
This is a crucial moment for African democracy, if this rigging is let to stand then it is a rubber-stamp to every leader to rig at will. In Nigeria last year there was massive rigging but the Western observers accepted the results saying thought it was rigged it was generally what the people wanted. Kibaki has calculated that there will be an initial storm to ride out before the world averts its gaze to another pressing matter, then he will be free to rule unmolested. However he faces the problem of trying to rule with some 30 or so MP’s and an opposition that will try to impeach him at the first chance they get. You get the feeling his backers did not think this plot through; if they had the chance again they would have rigged some more parliamentary seats. In “A man for all seasons” by Thomas Moore; Henry VIII says “They follow me because I am their Lion while they are my jackals.” The meaning there is all Kibakis cronies would be hung out to dry and starve if he were removed; they would lose all privileges and face court proceedings if he left. That is the reason why counting was slow, then stopped altogether, then Kibaki suddenly declared the winner.
The cancer of corruption has spread so deep in Kenya that all the institutions that could solve this impasse are tainted. Samuel Kivuitu is either the giddy goat or villain of this story; he allowed the electoral commission to be bullied or doctor the result outright. The Attorney-General Amos Wako is as trustworthy as any biased crony chosen on tribal grounds. The Police and Army have always existed to maintain the status quo. The members of parliament are up for sale at an even higher price now; chances are that they will take the money and run with Kibaki to break the deadlock. Church and community leaders can scream all they want to no avail as they were part of the problem during the campaign. And in the middle of this is the Kenyan people; they aren’t as tribalist as the violence suggests. In urban areas inter-marriage is common; intermarriage is the main reason Kikuyu are as numerous as now, they are exogamic and absorb other tribes. It is in poorer outlying areas where the violence has erupted; where illiterate poor tribesmen have been manipulated into killing their neighbours.
In all it will take a long time to heal these wounds; in the long run Kenya will recover but it will always have the potential of more violence. The next government should concentrate on healing the country and helping the poor; otherwise they will be militias waiting for a chance to commit genocide. Poverty and climate change are pushing demographic issues to the fore in Africa. In Darfur, Ivory Coast, Ogaden, Somalia, Niger, Mali, Northern Uganda, and any place that you see conflict in Africa there is a problem of scarce resources for farming, grazing, minerals or whatever the sort. Now Kenya is the loser whoever the winner is; be it Raila or Mwai, even a score draw that is a unity government is a loss. We need to see what the least worst outcome is and choose that because the rock and the hard place will start to squeeze Kenya. In the long run a compromise will come but time is precious and people are dying.
2 comments:
Hey,
How are you? It's been a long while.
Nice blog. Just found it.
I hope things are going well.
Happy New Year,
Hizi
Personally, I never thought it would ever go as far as genocide. Genocides need strong governments to occur and a compliant society to let the killers do their work unmolested. Secondly, genocides are usually aimed at minorities. You'll agree that taking on the Kikuyu or Luo is hardly attacking a small minority. Also, the violence was too sparodic and random. No apparent system. Lastly, I know this sounds cold, but 500 people out of 30 million is 0.0016%. Not even a medium sized ferry accident. It was all media hyperbole, no genocide was about to take place.
Oscar
Post a Comment